Understanding the ATTOM 9/10 Risk Score

For years, Austin was the poster child for the pandemic-era housing boom. But according to recent data from ATTOM, that rapid ascent has left a concentrated wake of risk. Our latest Crash Risk Index gives Austin, TX, a staggering 9 out of 10 score, signaling that the market remains one of the most vulnerable in the nation.

The Peak and the Pullback

The Austin market hit a historic fever pitch in mid-2022, with median home prices soaring above $550,000. Since then, the correction has been swift. Austin has seen a 23.6% drop from its 2022 peak, the sharpest decline among major U.S. metros.

While some see this as a necessary “cooling off” period, the data suggests the risk is highly concentrated:

• Negative Equity: As prices fall, homeowners who bought at the 2022 top are increasingly facing negative equity, with Austin’s rate of value loss exceeding other formerly “hot” markets like San Francisco.
• Inventory Surge: Active listings have hit a six-year high, reaching over 13,000 homes as demand softens from the pandemic-era migration boom.
• Absorption Rates: Houses are now sitting on the market for an average of 80–90 days, a massive shift from the days of instant bidding wars.

Why the 9/10 Score?

A 9/10 score doesn’t necessarily mean a total collapse is imminent, but it highlights concentration. The “crash risk” is most acute in specific segments: newer buyers with low equity and areas that saw the most aggressive price hikes during 2020–2022.

However, there is a silver lining. For those looking to enter the market, these declines are making Austin significantly more affordable again, with some homes once listed at $450,000 now selling closer to $325,000.

What’s Next?

As we move through 2026, the big question is whether prices have found their floor. While some experts predict modest, single-digit appreciation as the market stabilizes, the high concentration of risk remains a critical factor for investors and sellers to monitor.

For a deeper dive into your specific neighborhood’s vulnerability, you can check the latest stats on the ATTOM Real Estate Data Dashboard.

Are you a homeowner who bought in 2022, or a prospective buyer waiting for the floor? Let us know your strategy in the comments.

Are you a homeowner who is a motivated seller, or a landlord with a distressed property, or you just want a fast “all-cash” offer? Give us a call. We’ll show you the As Repaired Value (ARV), we’ll share the estimated repair costs and we’ll give you an as-is, quick close offer. Call or email the ROCK Team today! 512-850-4510, rockproperties@gmail.com